The Thinker’s Toolkit
Former CIA analyst Morgan Jones argues that the single most important factor missing from most decision-making processes is structure. Structure for him means a logical framework in which to focus discussion on key points, keeping it focused so that each element and factor of a problem is analyzed separately, systematically, and sufficiently. Jones goes on to say that humans tend to avoid analytic structure that because structuring one’s analysis is fundamentally at odds with the way the human mind works.
Human beings are problem solvers by nature. Yet in order to reach most solutions, we go through a process of trial and error. In all human affairs, from marriage to marketing to management, success is generally built upon failure. And why some failures are justly attributable to bad luck, most result from faulty decisions based on mistaken analysis.
Here is a list of some of what Jones calls analytic sins:
- We commonly begin our analysis of a problem by formulating our conclusions; we thus start at what should be the end of the analytic process.
- Our analysis usually focuses on the solution we intuitively favor; we therefore give inadequate attention to alternative solutions.
- Not surprisingly, the solution we intuitively favor is, more often than not, the first one that seems satisfactory.
- We tend to confuse “discussion/thinking hard” about a problem with “analyzing” it, when in fact the two activities are not at all the same.
- We focus on the substance (evidence, arguments, and conclusions) and not on the process of our analysis.
- Most people are fundamentally illiterate when it comes to structuring their analysis.
If we take a structured approach in thinking, the mind remains open, enabling one to examine each element of the decision or problem separately. The outcome is almost always more comprehensive and more effective than following our instincts alone.